February 14, 2024
4 min read
The strong El Niño pattern that made 2023 particularly hot is finally starting to weaken, which scientists expect will conclude by late spring. What does that mean for weather this year?
A sign on a Los Angeles freeway reminds drivers to use caution while driving in severe weather conditions on February 6, 2024, as parts of Southern California experience record rainfall.
The following essay is reprinted with permission from 
The Conversation, an online publication covering the latest research.
Wild weather has been roiling North America for the past few months, thanks in part to a strong El Niño that sent temperatures surging in 2023. The climate phenomenon fed atmospheric rivers drenching the West Coast and contributed to summer’s extreme heat in the South and Midwest and fall’s wet storms across the East.
That strong El Niño is now starting to weaken and will likely be gone by late spring 2024.
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So, what does that mean for the months ahead – and for the 2024 hurricane season?
What is El Niño?
Let’s start with a quick look at what an El Niño is.
El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, are climate patterns that influence weather around the world. El Niño tends to raise global temperatures, as we saw in 2023, while La Niña events tend to be slightly cooler. The two result in global temperatures fluctuating above and below the warming trend set by climate change.
El Niño starts as warm water builds up along the equator in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, off South America.
Typically, tropical Pacific winds blow from the east, exposing cold water along the equator and building up warm water in the western Pacific….
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