China’s population of 1.4 billion people is the largest in the world, right? Not anymore. In 2023 India surpassed China as the most populous country. China’s population began shrinking in 2022, and the latest United Nations report indicates that it could slip to 1.3 billion in 2050 and then plummet to only 770 million in 2100.
As this news spreads, warnings of a looming crisis are growing louder. Perhaps most concerning of these is that China will not have enough young people to grow the economy or support older adults. But China’s declining populace could be a cause for opportunity rather than a crisis. China could arrive at a stable and sustainable population of around one billion in 2100. At this level, it is possible for the country to remain a global superpower and for its citizens to become even more prosperous, with its older adults well cared for. And China’s experience in making this transition could provide valuable lessons for many other countries that will have a declining population in the coming decades.
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The Chinese Communist Party has flipped its population policy twice since assuming power in 1949. Initially the policy was very pronatalist—it promoted reproduction and a high national birth rate. Then in 1979 a strict one-child policy was adopted alongside the economic reforms launched by former leader Deng Xiaoping that fueled China’s extraordinary economic rise. In 2015, prompted by a sharply falling birth rate, a pronatalist policy was reintroduced that allowed two-child families, and a policy that allowed three-child families was introduced in 2021.
The most recent policy statement came from Chinese president Xi Jinping in his address to the 13th National Women’s…
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