As the first Russian columns rolled across the border toward Chernihiv, Ukraine, on the morning of Feb. 24, 2022, millions of people across the planet watched the invasion unfold. They were able to do so thanks to a steady stream of satellite imagery beamed down not by governments but by commercial space companies operating out of downtown San Francisco, suburban Denver and coastal Santa Barbara.
That steady stream of Earth observation data quickly became a critical intelligence source for Ukraine and its allies. Never before had the impact and importance of the new space economy been felt more viscerally. The availability of commercial intelligence of a quality and at a scale previously only available to a few countries’ spy agencies undeniably influenced both how those preparing for the conflict and those following the buildup viewed the engagement. For the first time in modern warfare, independent, near-real-time unclassified commercial data from space shaped the world’s understanding of an emergent conflict.
Today, almost exactly two years later, America and its allies find themselves facing a new and yet analogous challenge from Russia.
On Feb. 14, 2024, Representative Mike Turner (R-Ohio) disclosed the existence of an emerging and serious space-based “national security threat,” a threat quickly reported as being Russian in origin. As the international community reacts to this latest Russian provocation — this time facing the prospect of one or more Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapons placed on orbit, likely as part of a broader anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy — we are about to see another direct illustration of the geopolitical value of the new space economy. But this time, the commercial space-based capabilities necessary to understand and monitor this new threat are not as developed nor as capable as the Earth observation constellations were in 2022.
It is reported that Russia has not yet fielded and is…
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