WASHINGTON — A large launch vehicle could end up having a big effect on the small launch vehicle market through low prices and encouraging customers to build larger satellites.
The emergence of SpaceX’s Starship vehicle, which is designed to place 100 metric tons or more into low Earth orbit, has captured the attention of companies developing vehicles that can place one metric ton or less into orbit because of Starship’s potential to further reshape a market already affected by the company’s Falcon 9.
“Starship for sure will disrupt further the launch business and the space business in general,” said Marino Fragnito, senior vice president and head of the Vega business unit at Arianespace, during a panel at the Satellite 2024 conference March 20. “One scenario is that [SpaceX Chief Executive Elon] Musk could really monopolize everything.”
Starship would seem to be ill-suited for launching smallsats given its massive size. “I think Starship will open new business, like exploration, human spaceflight and commercial space stations,” he said. “I don’t think Starship can launch small satellites or will be used to launch small satellites.”
Later in the panel, though, he suggested one way Starship could be used to disrupt the smallsat launch markets by pairing the rocket with orbital transfer vehicles, or OTVs. “With Starship, OTVs can become the best option for smallsats,” he said. If Starship is able to achieve the very low per-kilogram launch prices proposed for it, “then it will be difficult for small launch vehicles.”
Starship’s capacity and prices, though, could affect the small launch market in other ways by encouraging satellite developers to produce bigger spacecraft. Such spacecraft, using heavier but less expensive materials, could be faster and cheaper to produce than smaller satellites.
“Starship will open up opportunities for satellites to grow the same way that they shrunk when there was more…
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